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Oil Prices and the China Economy: A DSGE Perspective

来源:湖南大学经济与管理研究中心  日期:2015-10-08 人气:

主   题:Oil Prices and the China Economy: A DSGE Perspective

主讲人:Dr. Ren Wang

Assistant Professor, School of Economy and Trade, HNU


时   间:10:00-11:30,Oct,9th (Fri.), 2015.


地   点:Shuishang Teaching Building, Room 213 (水上教学楼213)


摘  要:Although whether the economic boom in China has boosted the global oil prices remains controversial, there is little doubt that rapidly increasing oil demand and substantial net oil imports expose China to oil price shocks. Lack of structural analyses in a general equilibrium framework, available literature are incapable of disentangling the transmission channels of shocks across oil markets and macroeconomic variables in China. Against this backdrop, we embed oil markets in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and tailor the model specifically to capture the characteristics of China economy. We estimate the model using Bayesian techniques to identify shocks underlying the oil price swings and economic dynamics in China since 1995. Our main findings are threefolds. First, shocks to the oil supply, either originating in China or abroad, have little impact on oil prices. Second, shocks to the oil demand, such as foreign oil efficiency, foreign consumption and domestic monetary policy, plays an important role. Third, floating the exchange rate and liberalizing the capital account lead to a damped effect of foreign oil supply and efficiency shock on domestic output, consumption and investment, but an amplified one on exchange rate.




主讲人介绍:

Dr.Wang received his PHD in Economics from University of Calif Santa Cruz and Master’s degree in Economics from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He has passed all the tests of FRM and CFA awarded respectively by GARP and CFA Institute. His main research interest includes Chinese Economy, monetary policy, bulk commodity and international economics. This paper embedded oil markets in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and tailored the model specifically to capture the characteristics of China economy, to identify shocks underlying the oil price swings and economic dynamics in China since 1995.