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经管中心侯成瀚副教授论文被《Energy Economics》期刊接受发表

2021年10月12日  点击:[]

经济管理研究中心副教授侯成瀚的论文On the China Factor in the World Oil Market: A Regime Switching Approach ”被经济学国际期刊《Energy Economics》接受发表(合作者: Jamie Cross, Bao Nguyen)

 

论文简介:

Abstract: We investigate the relationship between China's macroeconomic performance and the world oil market over the past two decades. Unlike existing studies, we allow for possible regime changes by utilizing a class of Markov-switching vector autoregression (MS-VAR) models. The model identifies key regime changes in the structural shocks when the oil market experiences low and high volatility. We find that demand shocks from China and the rest of the world have a larger impact on the real price of crude oil during periods of high volatility. Supply shocks, in contrast, have a large effect on the price in the low volatility regime. A similar state-dependent phenomenon is observed for the impact of oil price shocks on China economic activity, however the size of these responses is relatively small. Thus, despite China being a major player in international oil markets, we conclude that oil market shocks tend to have little impact on China's real GDP growth.

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